Watch: Real Estate Expert Breaks Down Bay Area Housing Market Shifts
it is 5 35 for you this morning and we,want to talk about the housing crisis a,lot of people diving deeper especially,us here at nbc bay area into home prices,as many struggle to make it in the bay,the cost of a home rebounding in,downtown san francisco but in other,parts of the bay area real estate prices,they're still struggling to recover i,spoke with jeff tucker he's a senior,economist with zillow to find out more,the san francisco bay area is,extraordinary,nationwide for a few reasons it is the,most expensive major metro area in the,country,and it also has had this dynamic in the,pandemic where it was really the best,example that we saw in any city,of that what some folks have called the,donut effect of kind of the center of,the city having really weak housing,demand and even falling,or flatlining prices and so that extends,to some neighborhoods in san francisco,led frankly by the tenderloin uh where,prices are actually still down a little,bit,and i i think it's because san,francisco's kind of the the epicenter of,um remote work,and you know tech employers kind of,letting folks go away and and it's a,place where it was very expensive to be,kind of close to those downtown offices,so as a lot of people got that chance to,work remotely uh they moved further out,maybe they just never moved to the bay,area in the first place and that's why,out of really anywhere in the country,central san francisco is kind of unique,as a place where home prices have not,exactly skyrocketed and in a couple,cases are still pretty much flat or down,a little bit and that's what you were,just saying about people you know,working remotely we saw a lot of people,leaving the city going into more,suburban areas and housing demand right,now remains high while the inventory is,low here in the bay area but you're,finding say that we could see a slight,change talk to me about that,yeah this is an absolute inflection,point that the market is going through,right now and maybe has already gone,through it just in the last couple,months,where demand is pulling back in the face,of both high prices and extraordinarily,higher interest rates on mortgages than,we had even just six months ago putting,those changes together we see the,typical mortgage payment on a home in,the bay area over eight thousand dollars,that's that's off the charts that's,extraordinary a lot of people can't,afford to pay that so they're pulling,back and one of the first changes we're,seeing is you mentioned inventory being,super low it's begun to climb really,rapidly that puts some actual,competitive pressure between sellers now,and that is what is beginning to lead to,price cuts which could actually uh,we're seeing the earliest evidence now,of prices even beginning to decline a,little bit month over month especially,around san jose just which is really the,epicenter of the most expensive homes,now what about that are we seeing more,uh condos being built are we talking,about single family homes here,this this in
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San Francisco Real Estate Prices Falling | Bay Area Housing Market Report 2022
San Francisco Real Estate Prices Falling | Bay Area Housing Market Report 2022
ABC news reports that San Francisco home,prices are falling faster than any other,city in the country but what does this,mean for all home buyers and sellers,here in not just San Francisco but the,entire Bay Area coming up on this,Silicon Valley snapshot,we are used to seeing the Bay Area break,many housing market records but not this,type home prices in San Francisco are,falling faster than any other city in,the country that is not an award you,want to win and we're going to get into,how this affects San Francisco home,buyers and sellers and home buyers and,sellers across the greater Bay Area but,before we get into the data before we,get into the numbers if you are a home,buyer in today's Marketplace and you're,looking for a comprehensive data report,to assist you in your home buying,decision making you can text the word,data plus the area or the neighborhood,or the ZIP code that you're looking in,and we'll get a data report sent,straight to your inbox and if you're a,home seller in today's Marketplace and,you're looking for a comprehensive data,set to assist you in pricing your,property or maybe you're trying to,decide when should I sell my property,should when can I expect to get the most,amount of money for my home should I,sell now or should I sell later well all,those questions will be answered when,you text the word data plus your,property address to the number down,below this article here published by Tim,Johns of ABC7 in the Bay Area clearly,demonstrates that there is a true a true,cooling off of the Bay Area housing,market and and honestly this is not,front page news we we've known for a,while and if you've been watching my,videos here over the last several weeks,you'll see the data the data is very,clear San Francisco's hurting right now,and a lot of the other cities around it,are also not doing great and so what,does this mean for all of us here in the,bay before we go there let's just read,the article here real quick according to,one housing index Tim Johns writes,housing prices in the city by the bay,drop faster in August than in any other,city in America a 4.3 percent decline,since July a couple of months ago it was,academic we heard that there were,changes coming but I'm sensing on the,street that folks are feeling okay it's,here it's changed it's according to,Realtor John Wong shout outs to you John,there are numerous reasons behind the,drop according to economists we've seen,interest rates going up there very,quickly faster than they've gone up,since the 1980s the Federal Reserve has,been pushing up short-term rates and,mortgage rates have responded as well,said Economist Daniel Altman now again,this is not Front Page News what's,happening though and we're seeing it is,that San Francisco which was already if,you've been watching these videos for,many years you've seen the data you've,seen the numbers and San Francisco has,not been doing well for a good period of,time and so to layer on increasing rates,Etc it's only going to exa
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Home prices fall as number of homes for sale declines
Home prices fall as number of homes for sale declines
we were just talking about it here in,the studio the once hot housing market,is finally starting to cool off home,prices are down ish for the fourth,straight months now and that trend is,likely to continue in the New Year,experts say so joining us now to break,all this down Elizabeth ABC's Elizabeth,Schulte Elizabeth price is down four,months in a row we said we were talking,here in the studio prices are still,pretty high and interest rates are high,but first why are prices finally,breaking out of this crazy housing,market we've been having for a while you,know Terry this comes down to what the,Federal Reserve has been trying to do,we've been talking about how borrowing,costs are getting more expensive,interest rates have gone up and the,biggest place we've seen that play out,is in a housing market it gets more,expensive to take out a mortgage and as,this is kind of kept buyers on the,sideline because of the monthly payments,going up we've started to see housing,prices come down but you absolutely say,it right down ish is kind of the key,word there because we see buyers on the,sidelines from higher rates we're also,seeing higher effects from inflation,consumers generally are a little bit,tighter about their finances because,some of those day-to-day costs are,higher at the same time there's a long,way to go for the housing market before,these prices come back down to levels,they were before the pandemic this red,hot Market has stayed really hot and is,starting to cool probably going to still,cool off in the next couple of months,but a little bit of a ways to go when it,comes to actually being affordable,especially in certain parts of the,country Terry well let's talk about,certain parts of the country are there,regions where home prices are falling,the fastest,so what we see in the data is that,across metropolitan areas home prices,are dropping on a monthly basis so if,you're looking for a house last month,the prices that you're looking at this,month are probably going to be lower and,some of the cities that are having the,biggest declines right now are on the,west coast so places like San Francisco,like Phoenix like Las Vegas really these,areas that have been in these bidding,wars we've seen stories of all cash,offers these really really tight markets,are starting to cool off also in those,cities we're seeing that homes are,staying on the market for longer so,people are listing their homes and,they're not selling right away you're,not having to go out and find homes,before they even list in some of those,places,but on the flip side even with those,prices up if you take a city like here,in DC for example those costs were down,about half a percent for prices in the,past month still six percent higher than,a year ago so really this slowdown is,happening right now uh we're seeing some,some good news there a lot of problem,though comes down to the environment for,the sellers sellers aren't wanting to,list because they're worried they're not,going to s
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Housing Market Update - Real Estate Crash is Just Clickbait
Housing Market Update - Real Estate Crash is Just Clickbait
in today's video let's review the,housing markets will there be a real,estate crash,so I just want to say this I refuse to,click baits because I understand I,understand that the people that are,watching this video they're actually,relying on this information so if I get,less views because I do not clickbait,then honestly that's fine with me so be,it,I'm not going to hurt innocent people by,click baiting because I understand that,behind every view is an actual person so,you are not just a number to me I want,I'm here to help by providing good,information so I want to show you this,let me show you what I'm talking about,this is a classic example of Click,baiting Graham Stefan home prices are,going to crash 50 percent,just take a look at the thumbnail the,house is literally on fire burning down,so it looks like Graham Stefan barely,escaped the fire made it out of the,burning house thank God for his life he,fell down onto the curb in sheer,exhaustion and that he picked up a sign,warning us that home prices are gonna,fall 50 percent the biggest housing,market crash of Our Generation okay,another thing is that I see this picture,and it looks like Graham is trying to,sell a burned down home and he's only,offering a 50 discounts I'm guessing,that that listing it's going to sit on,the market for a while and of course,it's for sale by owner because no real,estate agent in their right mind is,going to be the listing agent on that,property so listen I want you to,understand this during the last housing,market crash which was a little bit more,than a decade ago home prices fell by 33,percent at that time 2.9 Million,properties were foreclosed on in 2010,alone that caused a flood of inventory,on the market which crashed home prices,by 33 percent so take a look at today,we're supposed to have approximately one,hundred thousand foreclosures in 2022,that's far from 2.9 Million let me ask,you a question do you know how bad the,situation would have to get for home,prices to fall 50 percent,you know I'm just going to say we are,not crashing 50 and we're not going to,have the greatest housing market crash,of Our Generation now let me give you,the stats and then I'll give you future,predictions but I want you to keep this,in mind,because okay if you don't take this into,consideration then your whole perception,of the situation will be distorted,in real estate there is seasonality so,generally speaking homes will sell for a,higher price in May June July and August,during peak real estate season yes there,is more inventory however there's also,more competition the slower months of,the year are October November and,December okay with that being said I,want you to keep that in mind throughout,the video also I'm making this video in,late December that's because November,data that gets reported in late December,so this November data it's the most,updated information at this time so now,take a look at this you are looking at a,three-year charts of home prices the,median sale
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Bay Area Housing Market Report 2022: Where Are All The Home Buyers?
Bay Area Housing Market Report 2022: Where Are All The Home Buyers?
has buyer demand here in the bay area,housing market peaked,coming up on this week's silicon valley,snapshot,for the last several weeks here in the,bay area housing market we've,experienced a bit of a slowdown all of,my colleagues are not talking about this,this is not front page news anymore over,the last couple of weeks we've,experienced a slow down in what seems to,be,activity levels,here in most bay area counties but,before we get into the data before we,get into the numbers if you are a home,buyer in today's housing market and,you're looking for a comprehensive data,set to assist you in your home buying,decision making you can go ahead and,text the word data plus the neighborhood,or the zip code or the area that you're,looking in and we will send that,information straight to your inbox and,if you're a home seller in today's,marketplace and you're trying to figure,out is now the right time for me to list,my house and if so what's the right,pricing strategy and what homes are,selling around me and and what what,should i be expecting in terms of price,all of that all of those questions will,be answered when you text the word data,plus your property address to the number,down below buyer demand is certainly,down month over month here in the bay,area housing market in most counties and,it's starting to feel like maybe the,best has already passed and while that,certainly might be the case i'm here to,provide a contrarian opinion an opinion,to the contrary now will is this,actually going to happen will will we,see a resurgence in buyer activity who,knows but i do believe that there is a,case to be made for buyer activity to,see a resurgence here for us to see a,resurgence in buyer activity in the,latter part of the spring heading into,the summer and fall months of 2022.,before we go there we really need to,start thinking about what was it that,got us to this point there were certain,economic factors that got us to this,point and certain seasonal events was,just the cherry on top to all of the,economic factors that were going on that,i believe led us to this point let's,start with the most obvious one and that,is the spike in interest rates over the,last three months we've seen rates,increase nearly a full point from the,low fours all the way to five percent,and that is definitely not something to,just dismiss as a non-factor it,certainly is a factor that being said,let's really think about what this does,what kind of impact this rate increase,has,on monthly payments in the 2 million,price range the average principal,interest taxes and insurance is,somewhere around 10,dollars a few months ago when the rates,were in the low fours the average piti,on a two million dollar home principal,interest taxes insurance on a two,million dollar home was somewhere,between the seven thousand to eight,thousand dollar range just depending on,the interest rate that you would get now,flash forward three to six months later,and we're now in a position where people,are
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No One Is Talking About This
No One Is Talking About This
with so many real estate crash videos,being uploaded daily by various creators,speculating on the future of this wild,housing market the overall feel here on,YouTube and among industry experts is,clearly bearish it's fair to say that,most people at this point believe,housing values are going to fall but,there is one area that gets completely,ignored by almost every Creator on the,platform we know that real estate can be,very siled meaning that while the,national average can tell you one thing,each city has its own unique Market in,some cities a crash can bring down,values by upwards of 50 percent while in,others prices barely budge each town has,its own unique characteristics that,either insulated from crashes or expose,it to massive fluctuations and value the,point I'm trying to make is that when we,talk about real estate in this country,we typically think only about common,coastal cities and boom towns rarely,does this place get talked about the,Midwest while speculation and price,growth have almost always been extreme,in cities like Phoenix San Francisco,Seattle Boston Vegas and Nashville there,are millions Millions out there in,Detroit Cleveland Pittsburgh and,Indianapolis who would love to know what,is happening to these historically,insulated markets while it's easy to,ignore this part of the country let's,not forget that the Midwest is home to,over 70 million people representing,nearly 20 percent of the entire U.S,population so how bad will the crash be,for the Midwest well to investigate that,question we first need to take a step,back to the last big crash and look at,the Midwest through a lens of comparison,reviewing the national home average and,comparing that to the prices in the Rust,Belt cities what we find is concerning,and fascinating just to give you some,perspective back in the 2008 crash home,values fell 28 from Peak to bottom that,was the commonly referenced national,average which takes into account nearly,every area of the United States now in,this downfall prices fell for five years,bombing out in February of 2012 and they,took nearly 11 years to recover that,means if we pretend that you were the,unluckiest home buyer ever and bought,your home in July of 2006 right when,prices peaked you would have not been,able to sell your house for the same,price until January 2017. pretty dismal,but for those of you who lived through,the 2008 bubble there is likely a large,portion of you that experienced a drop,much worse than this for example Vegas,which was one of the worst hit cities,saw a 62 percent decrease in values from,August 2006 to March 2012. and if you,were the unluckiest Vegas home buyer and,bought an 06 at the peak you wouldn't,have been able to sell your home for the,same price until June 2021 or nearly 17,years of waiting for your Equity to,recover so I say all this because it's,clear that depending on where you live,your value in a crash may be more than,two times worse than the national,average suggests it's commonly bel
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Redfin’s 2023 Housing Market Forecast: More Trouble Ahead
Redfin’s 2023 Housing Market Forecast: More Trouble Ahead
and welcome back and happy holidays,everyone thank you so much for joining,me in today's video I noticed that,Redfin posted their real estate market,predictions and housing market forecast,for,2023. they're actually forecasting that,home prices are going to decrease in,2023 and that'd be the first time in a,decade on top of that they're,forecasting that home sales are going to,be decreasing big time in 2023. so,there's that and a lot more in their,housing market forecasts here so with,that said let's go ahead and Dive Right,In this is our halcy Market predictions,through 2023 here it says we expect home,sales to sync to their lowest levels,sent in more than a decade in 2023 as,high mortgage rates keep housing costs,up and prevent people from moving hi,homeowner equity and a resilient job,market will Stave off a wave of,foreclosures here mortgage rates will,take center stage in 2023 with high,rates likely to make it the slowest,housing market a year since,2011. so we're staying here because we,have this affordability issue in the U.S,and of course because rates still remain,very much elevated compared the past,couple years here we're gonna have a,very slow housing market the slowest,since 2011. so here's their first,healthy Market prediction for 2023. home,sales will fall to its lowest levels,since 2011 with a slow recovery in the,second half of the year we expect about,16 percent fewer existing home sales in,2023 compared to 2022. and by the way,Based on data right now we're on,forecast we're on track to have about 5,million home sales existing home sales,in 2022. in 2023 they're expecting 16,percent fewer compared to 2022. so,they're expecting only 4.3 million,existing home sales in 2023 and people,will move only if they need to and they,cite this decrease of 16 percent on any,of your basis for home sales is mostly,due to affordability challenges that,we're seeing right now so at 4.3 million,this is uh so much lower compared to,2021. in 2021 there's approximately 6.1,million home sales and again this year,we're expecting around 5 million uh,close home sales for the entire year of,2022 only 4.3 million are forecasted in,2023 and this is actually pretty,remarkable because at 4.3 million have a,look at this here's analyze home sales,in November so annualized home sales in,November which which basically means,based on the current sales Pace in,November you analyze that number you,would have approximately a 4.09 million,home sales for the next 12 months if you,have the same sales Pace this November,you'd have approximately 4.09 at year,end or over the next 12 months so at the,analyst Pace right now at least after,the end of November at 4.09 million,excluding the onset covet which is May,2020 that's the lowest levels since,November 2010. so in other words based,on the current sales Pace right now it,makes sense we're going to see a huge,decrease in home sales potentially in,2023. you also can see that when looking,at pending home sales because look at
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What to expect from the housing market in 2023
What to expect from the housing market in 2023
>>> POTENTIAL OR EXISTING ,HOMEOWNERS MAY BE WONDERING ,WHAT THIS YEAR WILL BRING TO ,THE HOUSING MARKET. ,>> YOU MAY WONDER IF YOU ,SHOULD BUY, CONTINUE TO RENT OR ,REMODEL. ,EXISTING HOME SALES DROPPED FOR ,THE 10th MONTH IN A ROW LAST ,NOVEMBER. ,THAT'S DOWN MORE THAN 35% FROM ,A YEAR PRIOR. ,>> HERE IS WHAT IS ,INTERESTING. ,DESPITE A DROP IN SALES HOME ,PRICES HAVE KICKED UP ACROSS ,THE COUNTRY. ,THE MEDIAN EXISTING HOME PRICE ,FOR ALL HOUSING TYPES WAS ,AROUND $371,000 IN NOVEMBER AND ,THAT'S UP FROM $358,000 IN ,NOVEMBER OF 2021. ,>> JASON IS HERE TO HELP US ,FIGURE IT OUT. ,IS HE THE CO FOUNDER OF PARCEL ,LABS. ,JASON, WHAT IS -- LET'S START ,WITH THE VERY BEGINNING OF ,THIS. ,WHAT'S YOUR FORECAST FOR THE ,2023 HOUSING MARKET? ,WHO WILL WIN? ,>> FIRST OF ALL THANK YOU FOR ,HAVING ME. ,IT'S AN EXCITING TIME TO BE IN ,RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE. ,TO TALK ABOUT 2023 WE REALLY ,NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT ,HAPPENED IN THE LAST HALF OF ,2022. ,WE HAD A HOME PRICES STARTING ,TO COME DOWN BECAUSE OF ,INTEREST RATES. ,SO YOU HAVE -- YOU KNOW SKY ,HIGH APPRECIATION FROM THE ,PANDEMIC NOW MET WITH HIGHER ,INTEREST RATES AND THIS HAS ,CAUSED,AFFORDABILITY CRISIS. ,THAT'S SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT'S ,LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN 2023. ,THERE'S TWO POTENTIAL PATHS. ,PATH ONE IS WE GO INTO A ,RECESSION. ,THAT ADDS A THIRD FACTOR TO ,HOME PRICES. ,WE HAVE THE SKY HIGH HOME ,APPRECIATION FROM THE PANDEMIC. ,HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND A ,RECESSION. ,THIS BRINGS OUT BUYER THAT HAVE ,LESS SECURE JOBS. ,IT'LL BE -- THERE'S NOT GOING ,TO BE ENOUGH BUYERS. ,IN THE SECOND PATH WE STILL ,HAVE TO KEEP TIGHT CONTROL OVER ,INFLATION. ,SO THE FED WILL BE CAREFULLY ,MONITORING INTEREST RATES. ,THIS SITUATION WE DON'T HAVE TO ,WORRY ABOUT THE RECESSION JOB ,SECURITY PARTS BUT HOME PRICES ,STILL NEED TO COME DOWN BECAUSE ,INTEREST RATES AREN'T GOING ,BACK TO 3, 3.5%. ,FOR MORE TO ENTER THE MARKET ,HOME PRICES NEED TO DECLINE A ,BIT FURTHER. ,SO I SEE HOME PRICES COMING ,DOWN. ,>> IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL ,HOMEBUYER OUT THERE NOW WHAT IS ,THE NEXT DATA POINT THEY SHOULD ,FACTOR INTO A DECISION? ,IS IT IF INTEREST -- SOUNDS ,LIKE YOU ARE SAYING AT BEST ,WOULD SAY FLAT. ,WHERE IS THE INDICATION IF A ,RECESSION IS KICKING IN NOW OR ,NOT YET? ,>> SURE. ,SO I WAS A HOMEBUYER IN TODAY'S ,MARKET I THINK THERE ARE ,OPPORTUNITIES TO BE ON THE LOOK ,OUT FOR. ,AND YOU CAN LOOK FOR THESE -- ,WHO DO WE NEED TO BE MOTIVATED ,SELLERS? ,ARE IN THE MONEY OF MAKING ,MONEY PER HOME FLIP. ,IN TODAY'S MARKET THEY ARE ,LOSING ABOUT 15% PER ,TRANSACTION. ,I WOULD LOOK FOR LISTINGS THAT ,ARE HELD BY I-BUYERS AND GO ,INTO GREAT OFFERS TO GIVE ,YOURSELF THE ADVANTAGE. ,THE SECOND ARE DEVELOPERS. ,AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR ,HOUSING STARTS WERE AT A FIVE ,YEAR HIGH. ,THERE WERE HIGH LABOR AND ,CONSTRUCTION COSTS AND THE ,HOUSING MARKET WAS GOING ,THROUGH THE ROOF. ,THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE. ,DEVELOPERS ARE MOTIVATED TO GET ,OUT OF THIS MARKET AS WELL. ,I WOULD CONTACT DEVELOPERS AND ,I WOULD BUILD RELATIONSHI
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BAY AREA Real Estate Market Update September 2022!! Is HOUSING PICKING Back UP?!
BAY AREA Real Estate Market Update September 2022!! Is HOUSING PICKING Back UP?!
is housing starting to pick back up are,you thinking if it's the right time to,buy or sell you will want to watch this,video if you're thinking of making a,move before the end of 2022. welcome to,the september edition of your santa,clara county housing report i am spencer,sue your tech realtor of the bay area my,team has helped over 55 families so far,this year with their moves so this,knowledge is paired with data and what,is actually happening on the ground,level let's talk about the five most,important key areas to keep you informed,so that you can make smarter decisions,on your housing needs as august wrapped,up there are,1759 active homes on the market which is,a 14 drop from july of this year,new listings there were fourteen hundred,new listings which is a twenty percent,less than august of 2021. this level,matched a similar number lasting in 2019,this is one of the challenges of higher,interest rates environments where,sellers are reconsidering options to,sell their homes and just decide to rent,it out instead because the rental market,is very hot next there were,1074 homes sold during this time which,is 35 less than august of 2021. how fast,is the market moving,how fast do houses go on and then get in,contract things have slowed down by a,few more days it now takes on average 17,days to sell versus 14 days back in july,2022,all right now on to the part that,everyone wants to know about how much is,my home worth now the medium sales price,for a home in santa clara county is 1.4,million dollars this is a 3.4 percent,decline versus the previous month,now to be fair all of those are lagging,indicators the key metric is how many,are contingent and pending versus before,there are actually 1278,contingent pending right now which is,the highest versus the last two months,and very close to those main numbers,so what does this all mean if you're a,buyer while the market has shifted,towards being more of a buyer's market,people are coming back from vacation and,interest has certainly picked up,otherwise why would pending figures be,higher than the last few months,you have a lot of opportunities out,there but just be mindful that we may,have a bounce back so if you want your,opportunity and want to lock in these,rates don't miss out what does this mean,if you're a seller while the market,isn't as easy for sellers as it was more,than five months ago you still have good,news that with this recent bounce this,may be the right time to cash out if,you're looking to do so over the next 12,to 24 months take advantage of your big,gains and decide what you want to do,with your future my team can refer you,out to anywhere in the country and in,the world,but what's been going on with interest,rates that is a potential headwind,interest rates have actually continued,to climb with the average 30-year fixed,rate now at roughly six percent which,has been about a one percent increase,since the end of july all right as a,summary the market has been declining,without
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SF Bay Area California Housing Market Crash is Here! Home Prices Plummeting!
SF Bay Area California Housing Market Crash is Here! Home Prices Plummeting!
the San Francisco Bay Area housing,market is leading the nation but not in,a good way they're seeing some of the,largest price declines in the nation the,big question is are we through the worst,of it or are we going to see a repeat of,the last California housing market crash,I'll be covering all that and more in,today's regional market analysis let's,get into it,the latest data from Redfin a national,real estate brokerage shows the major,metropolitan areas in the San Francisco,Bay Area are experiencing some of the,most dramatic price declines in the U.S,from the recent peak in April of this,year the San Francisco metro area is,registering the sharpest decline falling,11.4 percent through August the Oakland,area is not far behind with a 9.3,percent decline over the same time,period and the San Jose metro area is,down 8.5 percent as well,make no mistake about it these are some,serious declines in such a short period,of time just for months two things we're,going to look at next to give us more,context for how to make sense of this,first we're going to look at how these,stats compare against other large,metropolitan areas in the country and,second How does the speed of this,decline compare to the last housing,market crash where California,metropolitan areas were affected more,than many other areas throughout the,country and then finally I'm going to,look at how much prices could head lower,in the next six to 12 months on the,first point I've analyzed redfin's,monthly price data for metropolitan,areas throughout the U.S to make it a,more meaningful comparison I limited the,analysis to larger areas with sales,volumes over 500 units per month giving,me a list of 147 metropolitan areas of,those are three barium metros ranked,first third and fourth for largest price,declines from April to August 2022.,okay so we know the price declines in,the Bay Area are pretty much the worst,in the nation right now but how does,this compare to the previous housing,market crash back in the 2000s,unfortunately Redfin doesn't have data,publicly available that goes back that,far but I do have monthly data from the,California Association of Realtors that,we can use for a comparison in their,data they combine all nine counties in,the San Francisco Bay area and for that,broader region the median price for a,single family home dropped only 2.7,percent from the seasonally adjusted,peak in April 2007 to four months later,in August 2007. in contrasts the nine,County Bay Area median price has,declined 10.1 percent from its recent,peak in April 2022 through August 2022,so we're seeing a much sharper decline,now than we did in the last housing,market crash back then it took nine,months for prices to decline by the same,magnitude we're seeing now the sharper,declines now however are due mostly to,the shock from mortgage rates that have,risen sharply eroding affordability and,crushing demand in the last housing,crash things unraveled a bit more slowly,and didn't have the sudden shock
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